Digging into the census shows regional variation

This is a post by Robert Stanton, a Community Research Fellow with the Social Research and Planning Council (SRPC). This is the first part in Painting by Numbers: Using Data to Explain Ourselves, an ongoing series by Robert about the various ways data can illuminate local issues.

At its core, the work of the SRPC – and by extension the data analysis that supports it – is about, and for the benefit of, the people living in Huron and Perth counties.  It probably makes sense, therefore, to begin this series of articles with a look at Perth-Huron’s population.

The chart below has been developed using data from the 2021 census.  It shows the populations of Perth-Huron’s subdivisions in 2021 and 2016.  The map of those subdivisions uses geographic data obtained from Statistics Canada.

Across the 15 subdivisions that comprise the Huron Perth region – 1 city (Stratford), 2 towns (Goderich and St. Marys), and 12 municipalities – the population is spread far from evenly.  The city of Stratford has twice the population of anywhere else, despite being the third smallest subdivision by area.

Population growth since 2016 has also been uneven.  North Perth and Stratford are again at the forefront along with ACW and Bluewater, while some other subdivisions have seen no growth at all.

Looking more closely at that growth, in the chart below, we can compare the population growth in each of the subdivisions, and benchmark them against other local cities, and against the province as a whole.

While the growth in Perth-Huron collectively (the dark blue column) may seem nothing special, Perth-Huron is a region of contrasts.  By provincial standards, population growth in North Perth is little short of spectacular, which will inherently create particular challenges for that part of our region.

Collectively, Perth-Huron covers 5,600 square kilometres, equivalent to almost 80% of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).  Yet its total 2021 population, of almost 143,000, is a mere 2% of that of the GTA.  Without closer examination, it might be easy to assume that any social issues in Perth-Huron would be those of a sparse population, when in fact there are parts of the region that face the challenges of rapid expansion.

Looking ahead, projections published by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in the summer of 2025 predict population growth for the region of 42% above the 2021 level by 2051 (from 143,000 to 203,000).  Huron County’s population is predicted to go from 61,000 to 82,000 (a 33% increase), while that of Perth County is forecast to rise from 82,000 to 122,000 (a 49% increase). Meanwhile, the predicted population growth in Ontario as a whole over the same period is 44%. With Perth above the provincial average and Huron below it, Perth County is projected to go from 57% of the region’s population to 60%. The patterns seen in the census data are expected to remain and probably intensify.

Similarly, a look at population density, as shown in the chart below, further emphasizes the need to avoid painting Perth-Huron with a single brush.  The social challenges in some parts of the region may be those of a sparse population, such as transport and access to amenities, but others may at the same time be experiencing the challenges of higher density living, such as a concentrated need for support.

Perth-Huron is not a book to be judged by its cover. Responsive support for its population requires a more detailed understanding of the region’s challenges, issues, and vulnerabilities.  This brief look at just one aspect of life here has exposed some of the complexities involved, and there are plenty more.

Next time on Painting by Numbers: What does population age data show us about the different parts of our region?

United Insights: A Research Blog by SRPC

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